Model Averaging in Ecology

Much of statistical practice is concerned with parameter uncertainty, and ignores model uncertainty, which arises when we fit several models and find that no single model stands out as best. This course will provide you with the tools to be able to allow for both types of uncertainty. Model averaging involves estimating the parameters in a way that allows for model uncertainty, and it often provides better estimates and confidence/credible intervals than those from a single best model. The course is divided into two modules (Bayesian and Frequentist model averaging) composed of pre-recorded lecture material and hands-on exercises using R. The course is based on David Fletcher's recent book (Springer 2018), which can be found here.

Learn at your your own pace with or without instructor support (see Online Course Format Chart below for details).

Summer: June 2 - August 24, 2025 (Early bird ends May 4th)

Fall: September 2 – November 23, 2025 (Early bird ends August 3rd)

*Early bird saves $75

Experience with the basics of probability, statistical methods (estimation and model selection), and using R to fit statistical models.

TOPICS

Why model averaging?

Motivating examples

Bayesian model averaging

• Classical Bayesian model averaging

• Prediction-based model averaging

• Examples of Bayesian model averaging

• R exercises with solutions on Bayesian model averaging

• Issues in Bayesian model averaging

Frequentist model averaging

• Point estimation in frequentist model averaging

• Examples of point estimation in frequentist model averaging

• R exercises with solutions on point estimation in frequentist model averaging

• Interval estimation in frequentist model averaging

• Examples of Interval estimation in frequentist model averaging

• R exercises with solutions on Interval estimation in frequentist model averaging

• Issues in Frequentist model averaging

LEARNING OUTCOMES

• Explain why there is a need for model averaging

• Decide when model averaging is and is not useful

• Understand modern tools for Bayesian and frequentist model averaging

• Understand the pros and cons of different methods used in model averaging

• Write R code to use these tools, including the use of relevant R packages

• Describe clearly the results you obtain from model averaging

FORMAT:

• 3 months of access to course materials as you work at your own pace 

CONTINUING EDUCATION:

• 16 CEUs with The Wildlife Society

• 4 CEUs in Category I(a): Scientific Education and Training with the Ecological Society of America

• Go to our Continuing Education Page for more details

FORMAT:

• 3 months of access to course materials as you work at your own pace 

• Get instructor support for the 3-month term via email, discussion threads, group meetings, and one-on-one appointments

• After working through the course materials, set up an optional 1-hr meeting with the instructor to discuss your own personal project from work or school

CONTINUING EDUCATION:

• 16 CEUs with The Wildlife Society

• 4 CEUs in Category I(a): Scientific Education and Training with the Ecological Society of America

• Go to our Continuing Education Page for more details

CERTIFICATIONS:

• Earn 1 credit toward certification as an Ecologist (at any level) with Ecological Society of America

• Earn 1 credit toward certification as an Associate/Certified Wildlife Biologist® (at any level) with The Wildlife Society

FORMAT:

• 12 months of access to course materials as you work at your own pace 

• Get instructor support for the 3-month term via email, discussion threads, group meetings, and one-on-one appointments

• After working through the course materials, set up an optional 1-hr meeting with the instructor to discuss your own personal project from work or school

CONTINUING EDUCATION:

• 16 CEUs with The Wildlife Society

• 4 CEUs in Category I(a): Scientific Education and Training with the Ecological Society of America

• Go to our Continuing Education Page for more details

CERTIFICATIONS:

• Earn 1 credit toward certification as an Ecologist (at any level) with Ecological Society of America

• Earn 1 credit toward certification as an Associate/Certified Wildlife Biologist® (at any level) with The Wildlife Society

• Earn 1 credit towards a professional certificate in Applied Quantitative Ecology with CWS

ACADEMIC CREDIT:

• Earn 1 academic credit (go to our Academic Credit Page for details)

• Earn an additional 1-2 academic credits with an Applied Project