Model Averaging in Ecology
COURSE DESCRIPTION
Much of statistical practice is concerned with parameter uncertainty, and ignores model uncertainty, which arises when we fit several models and find that no single model stands out as best. This course will provide you with the tools to be able to allow for both types of uncertainty. Model averaging involves estimating the parameters in a way that allows for model uncertainty, and it often provides better estimates and confidence/credible intervals than those from a single best model. The course is divided into two modules (Bayesian and Frequentist model averaging) composed of pre-recorded lecture material and hands-on exercises using R. The course is based on David Fletcher's recent book (Springer 2018), which can be found here.
PREREQUISITES
Experience with the basics of probability, statistical methods (estimation and model selection), and using R to fit statistical models.
PRIMARY INSTRUCTOR
COURSE FORMATS & DATES
FORMAT: Learn at your own pace over 3 months as you work through prerecorded lectures and exercises.
CONTINUING EDUCATION: This course has been pre-approved for continuing education by (1) the Ecological Society of America for 4 Continuing Education Units (CEUs) in Category I(a): Scientific Education and Training, and (2) The Wildlife Society for 16 CEUs in Category I of the Certified Wildlife Biologist® Renewal/Professional Development Certificate Program. Participants must complete all exercises to pass the course (P/F) and receive a CWS Certificate of Course Completion, which can be submitted to ESA and TWS for CEUs. See our Continuing Education Page for more details about CEUs with ESA and TWS.
*** This version of the course can NOT be used to earn academic credit from your college or university, certify as a Professional Ecologist with ESA or a Wildlife Biologist® with TWS, or used to earn a professional certificate with CWS. ***
DATES & PRICES:
Spring: Mar 4 - May 26: $400 professional / $300 student
Summer: June 3 - Aug 25 (early bird* ends May 6): $350 professional / $250 student
Fall: Sept 3 - Nov 24 (early bird* ends Aug 5): $350 professional / $250 student
*Early bird saves $50
FORMAT: Reach out to your instructor over a 1-month period to get help as you work through prerecorded lectures, problem sets, and your own personal work. Instructor support includes emailing your instructor, accessing live discussion threads, attending group meetings, and scheduling one-on-one appointments (Zoom or phone) about course materials, your research, datasets from work, etc. You will have access to the course for the 3-month term. Completing all exercises and course surveys are required to pass the course and receive a CWS certificate of course completion, which can be submitted for continuing education with ESA and TWS.
CONTINUING EDUCATION: This course has been pre-approved for continuing education by (1) the Ecological Society of America for 4 Continuing Education Units (CEUs) in Category I(a): Scientific Education and Training, and (2) The Wildlife Society for 16 CEUs in Category I of the Certified Wildlife Biologist® Renewal/Professional Development Certificate Program. Participants must complete all exercises to pass the course (P/F) and receive a CWS certificate of course completion, which can be submitted to ESA and TWS for CEUs. See our Continuing Education Page for more details about CEUs with ESA and TWS.
ESA & TWS CERTIFICATION: Participants that earn a B- or better can use this 1-credit course to help meet the minimum education requirements (in Chemistry, Physical Sciences, and Mathematics) to certify as a Professional Ecologist with ESA. Participants that earn a D or better can use this 1-credit course in their application to certify as a Wildlife Biologist® with TWS. See our Professional Certification Page for more details about ESA and TWS certification.
*** This version of the course can NOT be used to earn academic credit from your college or university or to earn a professional certificate with CWS. See the PREMIUM format below ***
DATES & PRICES:
Spring: Mar 4 - May 26: $550 professional / $450 student
Summer: July 1 - Sept 29 (early bird* ends June 3): $500 professional / $400 student
Fall: Sept 3 - Nov 24 (early bird* ends Aug 5): $500 professional / $400 student
*Early bird saves $50
FORMAT: Reach out to your instructor for help with course materials as you work through prerecorded lectures and exercises. Instructor support includes emailing your instructor, accessing live discussion threads, attending group meetings, and scheduling one-on-one appointments (Zoom or phone) about course materials, your research, datasets from work, etc. You will have access to course materials for 1 year. After working through 8 modules, set up an optional meeting with the instructor to discuss your own personal project from work or school.
CONTINUING EDUCATION: This course has been pre-approved for continuing education by (1) the Ecological Society of America for 4 Continuing Education Units (CEUs) in Category I(a): Scientific Education and Training, and (2) The Wildlife Society for 16 CEUs in Category I of the Certified Wildlife Biologist® Renewal/Professional Development Certificate Program. Participants must complete all exercises to pass the course (P/F) and receive a CWS certificate of course completion, which can be submitted to ESA and TWS for CEUs. See our Continuing Education Page for more details about CEUs with ESA and TWS.
ESA & TWS CERTIFICATION: Participants that earn a B- or better can use this 1-credit course to help meet the minimum education requirements (in Chemistry, Physical Sciences, and Mathematics) to certify as a Professional Ecologist with ESA. Participants that earn a D or better can use this 1-credit course in their application to certify as a Wildlife Biologist® with TWS. See our Professional Certification Page for more details about ESA and TWS certification.
ACADEMIC CREDIT: This 1-credit course can be taken with pre-approval from an administrator at a your college or university. For an additional fee, students also have the option to complete an Applied Project for an additional 1-2 academic credits (earning up to 2-3 academic credits in total). See our Academic Credit Page for details.
CWS PROFESSIONAL CERTIFICATE: CWS requires a grade of a B- or higher for the course to count toward earning a Professional Certificate in Applied Quantitative Ecology.
DATES & PRICES:
Spring: Mar 4 - May 26: $650 professional / $550 student
Summer: July 1 - Sept 29 (early bird* ends June 3): $600 professional / $500 student
Fall: Sept 3 - Nov 24 (early bird* ends Aug 5): $500 professional / $400 student
*Early bird saves $50
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Why model averaging?
Motivating examples
Bayesian model averaging
Classical Bayesian model averaging
Prediction-based model averaging
Examples of Bayesian model averaging
R exercises with solutions on Bayesian model averaging
Issues in Bayesian model averaging
Frequentist model averaging
Point estimation in frequentist model averaging
Examples of point estimation in frequentist model averaging
R exercises with solutions on point estimation in frequentist model averaging
Interval estimation in frequentist model averaging
Examples of Interval estimation in frequentist model averaging
R exercises with solutions on Interval estimation in frequentist model averaging
Issues in Frequentist model averaging
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Explain why there is a need for model averaging
Decide when model averaging is and is not useful
Understand modern tools for Bayesian and frequentist model averaging
Understand the pros and cons of different methods used in model averaging
Write R code to use these tools, including the use of relevant R packages
Describe clearly the results you obtain from model averaging
SCHOLARSHIPS
Full scholarships are available to participants from countries designated as “lower income” and “lower middle income” in the World Bank List of Economies. Please see our CWS World Scholars Program page for details.
CANCELLATION POLICY
Cancellations 30 days or more before the start date are not subject to cancellation fees. Cancellations <30 days before the start date are subject to a 50% cancellation fee. No refunds once the course begins.